to Handicap NFL Football Games
in essence applies to methods pertaining to how we calculate advantage. It is a
sequence of processes that will help bettors make better choices when wagering
on sports. A smart handicapper will take every factor into consideration, as
well as how they will affect the outcome of a given game.
NCAA and NFL Football
- Why use More than a few Handicappers
bettors believe that doing their own handicapping is too complicated, and will
ďgo with their gutĒ when deciding where to put their money. Both of these are
wrong. Although handicapping correctly is time consuming, it is not
complicated. There is no exact science to it, you need to find information that
will directly affect the game, and use those systems across the entire schedule.
Here are four things to get you started on the right track of knowing how to
handicap NFL games.
key is to get started early. After a day of football, and perhaps a few
beverages, itís tough to get started on Sunday night, but if you can, itís the
perfect time. If not, first thing Monday morning you want to start working on
your own point spreads before even looking at sportsbook spreads.
let those lines affect how you see the game. Once you develop your method for
handicapping games, start digging into the numbers. You will come up with a
process that works for you, but I like to generate my own power rankings.
will divide every team into six categories, offense, defense, special teams,
offensive line, defensive line and human factor. Offense, defense and special
teams are where points come from, games are won and lost on the line and the
human factor will include many things.
example of human factor could be a team getting blown out the previous week.
These guys are professionals, and most have only ever known winning, having
dominated in youth football, high school and a lesser extent college. I love
siding with a team that just got blown out, primarily because the public will
overcompensate. Getting soft lines early before they move is often times where
you will find the most value in betting on the NFL.
I am starting to handicap the upcoming weekís games, Iíll always start by doing
a quick assessment of each game. Itís tougher to do in the first few weeks, but
inconsistencies and overall questions surrounding teams will often time cause
me to take them off my board all together.
Key NFL Betting
Numbers and How to Use Them
my work through the remainder of my systems it will become apparent that some
games are not worth wagering on. It will make your entire process easier after
eliminating these games, giving you better direction on which games you should
focus on. It makes no sense to handicap every game, so do yourself a favor and
take games off the board in a couple different stages of your handicapping
talked a little about this earlier, but these guys are professionals, both the
players and coaches. They will make necessary adjustments from week to week, so
do not get too wrapped up if a team got blown out the week before or had their
quarterback sacked 10 times.
if it becomes a trend and a team is regularly getting 40+ points scored on
them, they most likely have a major weakness in their defense. Sometimes it
only takes one missing link, and when that weakness is spotted, team will
exploit it over and over again. The NFL is all about matchups, and the good QBs
will always find that weakness and go after that matchup until the proper
corrections are made.
is important to remember that one way or another, teams find a way to correct
their weaknesses. If a coaching staff canít, upper management is sure to find
someone that can. Remember that the majority of the public doesnít look at it
like that. They see this weakness and they believe this weakness will continue
to be an issue, causing the line to move in your favor.
these lines that are being over compensated by the public is where the real money
is made. You will see a lot of times the line will move in a direction that
will benefit you. Donít get caught up in the carryover from week to week.
to Follow the Sharp Money
could be an article on it own, because there is a lot to know here, but letís
touch on some of the basics. A lot of times sportsbooks will release a line
knowing which side the public will side with. Itís no secret the public loves
to bet the favorite and the OVER, and books will exploit this by inflating the
line depending on the teams popularity and/or how much they are dominating at
key to following the sharp money is to follow line movements, and more
importantly, the percentages of bets on either side. By doing this, you will
come to identify reverse line movements, which often times means that the sharp
money is betting against the public.
line movement is a good sign that there is big money on one side, although a
large percentage of the tickets on that game are on the other. For example,
letís say a game has a 70% bet percentage at -3. In this case, you would expect
the line to be adjusted to -3.5. Instead of going in the direction you feel it
should, it moves to -2.5. This is an indication that more money is coming in on
the underdog, perhaps from sharp betting syndicates.
isnít failsafe either, because like anything else in the betting world, nothing
is ever black and white. Be aware of other factors that might be causing a
reverse affect to the line, and separate facts from assumptions.
Sports Betting -
Basic understanding of how to read sports betting odds
remember that sharps like to bet early and late, so be aware of early and late
line movements, again, trying to separate from other reasons why these are
happening. Injuries, weather and other factors will always have some affect as
main thing to consider when you start your handicapping process is to have fun
with it. There is no exact science, and remember that the work you are doing is
more than what 80% of recreational bettors are doing. Do you own handicapping, creating your own
spreads for the games you want to bet, then have a look at where your
sportsbook has their lines set, and see how close you are.
there are some that are very different from yours, figure out why. See why your
numbers are so different. If there is no clear cut reason why, maybe thatís the
your 5-Star game for that week. Uncovering soft lines are your key to sports
betting success, and knowing how to handicap NFL games is your key to cashing
more winning tickets.