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NBA Free Pick | Raptors at Knicks

 

The Knicks dropped two games this week to fall to eighth place in the Eastern Conference. They will face divisional foe Toronto on Sunday as the Raptors attempt to stay in position to at least get a play-in berth.

New York has been fading as of late, but the Raptors havenít done much better and are failing to gain ground on the 10th-place Chicago Bulls. Win or lose, there is one thing that has been consistent in New York and that is the focus of this free pick.

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Game: Toronto Raptors (20-31, 21-30 ATS) at New York Knicks (25-27, 30-21-1 ATS)

When: 8:00 PM ET, Sunday, April 11, 2021

Where: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York

Americaís Bookie Current Line: OFF Total: OFF

TV Coverage: MSG Network

The Knicks have won just one game in their last six, but their defense has kept them in most of the games. The other thing the Knicks elite defense has done is push their game totals Under the posted total.

We nailed our last free pick, predicting Florida State to win, but UNC Greensboro to cover. Take a look at our Spartans vs. Seminoles betting preview.

In the last eight Knicksí games, the total has gone Under in six of them. Because of their defense, the Knicks continually face low totals. In those last eight games, one of their two Overs was when the total was set at 202.5 in a game against Detroit. 

New York is No. 1 scoring defense allowing just 104.1 points per game. The Knicks are also No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage. They just donít let teams score. In their last six games (in which they won just once), the Knicks have allowed 101, 81, 99, 102, 98, and 114 points.

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The Knicks defense is the reason why they are second in the NBA in Under percentage. A total of 61.5 percent of Knicks games end up with a total that goes Under. New York has 32 Unders in 52 games. 

Toronto played the only other team with a defense like the Knicks - the Lakers - on Tuesday night. The Raptors were held to 101 points by a Lakers team that played without LeBron James and Anthony Davis. 

The Raptors trend toward the Over this season. The Over is 28-23 in Toronto games this season, but against the two best defenses in the league the Raptors have barely scored over 100 points. 

Toronto beat New York earlier this season, 100-83. The Raptors were an 8-point favorite and the total was set at 215 reflecting the defense of New York. This time around, bettors should expect some similar numbers.

Neither team has performed all that well lately. Toronto is as healthy as it has been all season, so expect the Raptors to be a small favorite. The key is the total, which will likely fall right around where it was on December 31, the first Raptors-Knicks meeting.

The Knicks defense will keep them in this game. Win or lose, both teams will likely check in right around 100 points. You could probably play this total much lower, but play it down to 212. 

NBA Free Pick: UNDER down to 212

Before you move on, we took an inside look at the 2021 NCAA tournament. Itís worth your while to read it.





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