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NCAAF Free Pick | Northwestern @ Iowa

 

Itís a Big Ten slugfest in Iowa on Saturday as the Hawkeyes welcome Northwestern to town. The Wildcats got a big win last week over Maryland. Donít get too excited though; the Terrapins are probably the worst team in the Big Ten. Iowa somehow found a way to lose to Purdue last week despite the Boilermakers not having standout WR Rondale Moore.

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Game: Northwestern Wildcats (1-0, 1-0 ATS) at Iowa Hawkeyes (0-1, 0-1 ATS)

When: 3:30 PM ET, Saturday, October 31, 2020

Where: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA

Current Line: IOWA -2.5†††††† Total: 46.5

TV Coverage: ESPN

Old School Football!

For the last three seasons, the Hawkeyes-Wildcats matchup has been a physical, smash-mouth, old-school style of football game. The scores in each of those three years have been 20-0, 14-10, and 17-10. It might shock some to know that Northwestern has actually won three of the last four games against Iowa.

The Wildcats won 14-10 in 2018, 17-10 in 2017, and 38-31 in 2016. Northwestern was favored in just one of those games. The Wildcats enter Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite after having obliterated Maryland.

Northwestern ran for 325 yards against the Terrapins. Drake Anderson led the charge with 103 yards on 10 carries. Isaiah Bowser added 70 yards and QB Peyton Ramsey ran seven times for 47 yards and a touchdown in addition to throwing for 212 yards and another score.

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What to Expect

Donít expect that sort of performance against an Iowa defense. The Hawkeyes are typically very solid on defense ranking among the nationís best in several defensive statistical categories. Despite the loss last week, Iowa held Purdue to just 104 yards on the ground. Northwestern will face a much tougher task this week compared to Maryland.

The Iowa offense is a run-oriented, pro-style attack that doesnít make many mistakes. QB Spencer Petras went 22-of-39 for 265 yards in last weekís loss to Purdue. He did not throw an interception. Petras also didnít throw a touchdown pass.

The Hawkeyes have two very good running backs in Mekhi Sargent and Tyler Goodson. Last week, Goodson carried 16 times for 77 yards and Sargent had 71 yards on 11 carries. 

The bottom line is that this game is headed for another run-heavy, defensive battle. The Under has cashed in the last three straight games in this series and should be the choice of many sports picks.

The Pick is In

With both teams having similar mindsets - run-oriented, strong defenses - the Under has hit in six of the last seven Northwestern road games. The Total has gone Under in seven of the last ten Iowa games. 

If you go back 15 games in the Iowa-Northwestern series, the Under has cashed in 11 of them. Now, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five games, but three of the spreads in those games were between 8.5 and 11.5 points. 

Northwestern has won on the road at Iowa recently, but backing the Wildcats at +2.5 your online sportsbook just doesnít seem as strong as backing the Under. 

NCAAF Free Pick: Northwestern-Iowa Under 46.5





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