NCAAF Free
Pick | Northwestern @ Iowa
It’s a Big
Ten slugfest in Iowa on Saturday as the Hawkeyes welcome Northwestern to town.
The Wildcats got a big win last week over Maryland. Don’t get too excited
though; the Terrapins are probably the worst team in the Big Ten. Iowa somehow
found a way to lose to Purdue last week despite the Boilermakers not having
standout WR Rondale Moore.
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The history
of this game suggests bettors should lean in a certain direction.
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ready to start
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Game:
Northwestern Wildcats (1-0, 1-0 ATS) at Iowa Hawkeyes (0-1, 0-1 ATS)
When:
3:30 PM ET, Saturday, October 31, 2020
Where:
Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
Current
Line: IOWA -2.5 Total:
46.5
TV Coverage:
ESPN
Old
School Football!
For the
last three seasons, the Hawkeyes-Wildcats matchup has been a physical,
smash-mouth, old-school style of football game. The scores in each of those three
years have been 20-0, 14-10, and 17-10. It might shock some to know that
Northwestern has actually won three of the last four games against Iowa.
The
Wildcats won 14-10 in 2018, 17-10 in 2017, and 38-31 in 2016. Northwestern was
favored in just one of those games. The Wildcats enter Saturday as a 2.5-point
favorite after having obliterated Maryland.
Northwestern
ran for 325 yards against the Terrapins. Drake Anderson led the charge with 103
yards on 10 carries. Isaiah Bowser added 70 yards and QB Peyton Ramsey ran
seven times for 47 yards and a touchdown in addition to throwing for 212 yards
and another score.
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What to
Expect
Don’t
expect that sort of performance against an Iowa defense. The Hawkeyes are
typically very solid on defense ranking among the nation’s best in several
defensive statistical categories. Despite the loss last week, Iowa held Purdue
to just 104 yards on the ground. Northwestern will face a much tougher task
this week compared to Maryland.
The Iowa
offense is a run-oriented, pro-style attack that doesn’t make many mistakes. QB
Spencer Petras went 22-of-39 for 265 yards in last week’s loss to Purdue. He
did not throw an interception. Petras also didn’t throw a touchdown pass.
The
Hawkeyes have two very good running backs in Mekhi Sargent and Tyler Goodson.
Last week, Goodson carried 16 times for 77 yards and Sargent had 71 yards on 11
carries.
The bottom
line is that this game is headed for another run-heavy, defensive battle. The
Under has cashed in the last three straight games in this series and should be
the choice of many sports
picks.
The Pick
is In
With both
teams having similar mindsets - run-oriented, strong defenses - the Under has
hit in six of the last seven Northwestern road games. The Total has gone Under
in seven of the last ten Iowa games.
If you go
back 15 games in the Iowa-Northwestern series, the Under has cashed in 11 of
them. Now, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five games, but three of the
spreads in those games were between 8.5 and 11.5 points.
Northwestern
has won on the road at Iowa recently, but backing the Wildcats at +2.5 your online
sportsbook just doesn’t seem as strong as backing the
Under.
NCAAF Free
Pick: Northwestern-Iowa Under 46.5
